Suspending the INF treaty causes serious geopolitical concerns
In the year 1987, two of the largest world powers came together to sign a treaty that would halt the development of nuclear missiles within a certain range. This Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty is now in jeopardy due to the political, social and economic climate between the U.S. and Russia.
So what exactly is the INF Treaty and why is it important?
Ever since the end of World War II, the Russian-U.S. Cold War has been taking place between these two countries. These two nations have been in a political sibling rivalry of sorts. They are constantly picking fights over who has the most weapons or who has the better space program.
During the Cold War, Russia, formerly part of the Soviet Union (USSR), and the U. S. were having an intense arms race; each country was trying to build up the largest nuclear arsenal in the world.
This treaty halted both powers from developing or using nuclear ballistic missiles in a range of 500 to 5,500 kilometers of each other.
Both sides of this bilateral agreement have now decided to pull out of the agreement after the U.S. accused Russia of violating INF guidelines as early as 2014. This is startling to me because it reveals the essence of an arms race.
But even more worrisome is that the decision on the part of the U.S. also opens these two world powers up to a rematch, essentially a continuation of the Cold War.
In retaliation to the U.S.’s decision, Russia’s current president, Vladimir Putin has decided to follow the U.S. and pull out of the INF Treaty as well. Members of Putin’s team call the accusations “unfounded,” but who’s to say considering the underhanded business reputation Putin’s administration has developed.
A glaring example of such business is the suspected meddling in the U.S. presidential election in 2016.
Dissolving the INF Treaty leaves a foreboding feeling to the political air, due to the fact that Russia and the U.S. are on incredibly unstable footing to begin with.
The latest withdrawal from the INF Treaty poses a real threat to the stability of two of the world’s biggest powers. Both of the countries have large nuclear arsenals, and now that there is nothing stopping them from coming within a certain range, who says they won’t try it?
Russian officials have even stated that they are beginning to openly develop and test ballistic nuclear missiles that completely violate INF guidelines. They have predicted that they will have developed long range ground-based hypersonic rockets by 2020.
These developments are obviously leading Russia and the U.S. into an even more intense case of nuclear deterrence. Nuclear deterrence is a theory which boils down to the idea that a threat of mutually assured destruction deters nations from using their nuclear warheads on one another.
I would not be surprised if it came out in the next few months that the U.S. will also be working on new weapons for the national arsenal.
Nuclear deterrence is not always what it seems though. There are a few challenges, and the withdrawal from the INF Treaty exposes one blatantly. As leaders and political climates change, so do the perspectives on certain policies within international relations.
Today, Russia is once again on the upward trend as a world superpower with a weak and unstable democracy. Russia also has one of the largest militaries. And with Putin in the chair of the presidency, living up to his moniker “Strongman,” he has pulled Russia out of a major economic gutter.
The U.S. in turn, while still a definite economic superpower, is dealing with a political climate in 2019 that is intense to say the least.
With both of these factors in play, it is no surprise that the INF Treaty is dissolving.
On that note, there is some hope when it comes to global nuclear deterrence. There have been talks of creating a revised multilateral INF Treaty. This new treaty would include other major players like China or the National Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
This would be a great compromise, and Russia seems open to it. But others do not seem as willing. A multilateral agreement will be something to look out for in the future, but for now, there is currently nothing to stop Russia and the U.S. from each creating a bigger and badder nuclear arsenal.
