The influence of a redrawn Congressional map
The Pennsylvania Supreme Court released a new congressional map on Feb. 19 after ruling that the previous map “clearly, plainly and palpably” violated the state’s Constitution.
The new map was due by Feb. 15 and was to be approved by Gov. Wolf. He rejected the suggested changes and it went to the courts to be redrawn. Changes to the map were made just in time for the midterm elections in November, and could affect Democrats’ chances to claim more seats in the House of Representatives.
What is different about the new map?
The old Congressional plans had been in place since 2011, and the districts were drawn into shapes that favored the Republican party. Pennsylvania is almost evenly divided between the two major parties, but the heavily gerrymandered districts cause a large majority of the districts to be Republican. Lines stretched from the northeastern corner of Pennsylvania to the center of the state and created districts in odd shapes.
With the gerrymandered map, Republicans won 13 of the 18 congressional seats in 2012, 2014 and 2016. The proposed districts are more compact and are easy to read. It could give Democrats much more competition in the congressional races, according to preliminary analyses. Democrats in Pennsylvania could have a better chance of claiming more seats in Congress.
What kind of impact will this have on the midterm elections?
“The new map, if upheld in federal court, will mean a fundamental shift in congressional politics in Pennsylvania,” said Joe Powers, adjunct professor of political science, who spoke at a gerrymandering panel with Gov. Wolf on Jan. 31. “Since the now overturned districts were created in 2012, there have been virtually no real general election races in this state. The Republicans win their 13 districts and the Democrats win their five districts. With the new map, up to eight districts will have contested races and Pennsylvania will be the subject of national attention.”
Democrats have the chance to pick up six seats in the next election with the redrawn plans. They need to pick up 24 seats that are currently held by Republicans in order to take back the House. A quarter of the seats could be taken solely by Pennsylvania to regain a majority in the House.
What is the Republican response?
The Republicans want to challenge the redrawn map in federal court, arguing that the legislatures and governors have the responsibility of redrawing the map, not the court. State Senate Majority Leader Jake Corman (R) led a complaint in the U.S. District Court along with State Senator Mike Folmer (R) and a group of Republican congressmen from Pennsylvania.
They want to stop the map from being used in the midterm elections. Republicans believe the court is overstepping its bounds. Senate President Pro Tempore Joe Scarnati (R) and House Speaker Mike Turzai (R) asked the Supreme court to intervene to block the implementation of the map, but the court has already declined to get involved in the case.