Control of the Senate is very contested with the upcoming election, with the Democratic party currently defending seats in West Virginia, Ohio and Montana, all states where Republicans have had electoral dominance in recent years. This also includes the swing states President Joe Biden won in the 2020 presidential election. However, one race may not be as competitive as the state’s electoral history might suggest: the Pennsylvania Senate race. 

Bob Casey Jr., the incumbent, is currently running for his fourth term against the presumptive Republican nominee, David McCormick, a businessman and former Treasury official under the George W. Bush administration. 

Casey’s appeal to Pennsylvania voters has been long-standing, with Casey being elected to state positions such as Auditor General and State Treasurer before being elected to the Senate in 2006. Casey’s father, Bob Casey Sr., was governor from 1987 to 1994 and was widely popular. Thus, Casey has a very well-established connection with Pennsylvania voters. 

With the presidential race being at the top of the ballot and Pennsylvania being a swing state, this election would traditionally be considered very close. Yet, the polls right now are not reflecting this usual closeness. Currently, Casey is averaging a 7.5-point lead over McCormick, compared to how former President Donald Trump is currently leading Biden by 0.5%. 

While polls are not everything, they do demonstrate Casey’s ability to outperform other Democrats, something he has done in the past. For instance, in 2012, Casey, in the Senate election, outperformed former President Obama by 4 points, almost doubling the margin of victory from the presidential election.

According to The Hill, 9% of voters who plan to vote for Trump plan to split their ticket across party lines and vote for Casey, while only 3% of Biden voters plan on splitting their ticket for McCormick. Moreover, Casey’s ability to pull support from all sides of the political spectrum makes him a very strong candidate, especially in such a polarizing time in political history.

All in all, Casey has a history of outperforming other Democrats, making him poised to win reelection to a fourth term in 2024.