Analyzing how the Phillies could end their 11— year playoff hiatus
The Philadelphia Phillies have not played a postseason game since their 1-0 loss to the St. Louis Cardinals in Game 5 of the National League Division Series (NLDS) on Oct 7, 2011.
The Phils have finished over .500 just once since then, and have suffered seven losing seasons in that time span, while finish- ing at exactly .500 twice. That decade-plus long span without a playoff appearance may be coming to an end in 2022.
As of Sept. 2, the Phillies hold the second of three wild card spots in the National League (NL) with a record of 73-58, and are three and a half games ahead of the first team out of the playoff field, the Milwaukee Brewers. Winning the division is a pipe dream for them at this point, as they sit 10 games back of the New York Mets, and 7.5 games back of the sec- ond-place Atlanta Braves.
Having the newly introduced third wild card spot massively improves Philadelphia’s playoff odds. Since the Phillies’ last playoff appearance in 2011 (excluding the 2020 Ma- jor League Baseball (MLB) season that had a shortened 60 game regular season and a 16 team playoff field), the sixth seed in the NL has won an average of 85 games. Given that Phila- delphia is on pace to win just over 90 games in 2022, they should feel good about their odds.
The most notable improvement that the Phillies have made in 2022 has been their pitching. During their playoff drought, Philadelphia has finished 21st in team Earned Run Average (ERA), and have not finished better than 17th since 2012. This season, they are 12th in team ERA, and are ninth in strikeouts as a pitching staff.
The starting pitching for the Phillies has been of high quality this season. Zach Wheeler, Aaron Nola and Kyle Gibson all have decent ERAs of 3.07, 3.43, and 4.03 re- spectively. Nola has struck out 190 batters, tied for the fourth best in baseball. Wheeler has struck out an honorable 148.
Philadelphia’s pitching has done enough to counteract their poor defense, which has improved from their league worst -54 Defen- sive Runs Saved (DRS) in 2021. Despite their defensive improvement, they are still one of the league’s worst defensive ball clubs. They currently have -30 DRS, which is only better than the San Francisco Giants and the Wash- ington Nationals. It remains to be seen wheth- er their defensive struggles will come back to haunt them in October.
The Phillies’ offense has been solid, as expected, in 2022. They are ninth in team batting average and seventh in team slugging percentage. Kyle Schwarber, while hitting just .214 and having a mediocre 1.5 Win Above Replacement (WAR), has hit the second most home runs in baseball with 36. Alec Bohm, J.T Realmuto, Nick Castellanos and Rhys Hoskins have all been productive at the plate as well in 2022, upholding Philadelphia’s status as one of the best offenses in baseball.
The Phillies have 31 games to finish out their playoff push, and 19 of those games are
against teams with losing records. If the Phil- lies can sustain the success that they have found since firing former manager Joe Girardi on June 3, they could have a legitimate shot to end the second longest playoff drought in baseball, and have their most memorable sea- son since that 2011 playoff appearance.
