Analyzing Brexit’s future and Scottish independence

The United Kingdom held a snap general election within Parliament on Dec. 12, 2019. Conservative Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been calling for an election to be held as early as October, but as the Brexit deadline on Oct. 31 crept closer with Parliament still in deadlock, many opponents in Parliament began to agree that another election was necessary.

Parliament voted to postpone the Brexit deadline and the European Union (EU) allowed another extension until the end of January, marking the third time Brexit has been delayed since March 2019.

In the midst of political deadlock, all Boris Johnson could hope for was an electoral miracle in order to “get Brexit done,” in the words of his own campaign slogan.

All 650 seats in Parliament’s House of Commons were up for election simultaneously, but even more dramatic than the build-up to the general election was its historic result. By the end of voting, the Conservative Party had gone from desperately calling for a snap election to winning their largest majority since Margaret Thatcher’s 1987 prime ministership.

So what exactly do these results mean?

Likely two things: first, there will be no going back on Brexit under Conservative leadership. And second, Scottish independence from the UK is back on the table.

First, Brexit is still definitely happening, much to the chagrin of the 48% of Brits who voted to remain part of the EU in 2016. This split between so called “remainers” and “leavers” who voted to either remain or leave the EU has been at the core of British politics for the last four years.

Former opposition leader and leader of the Labour Party, Jeremy Corbyn had taken a soft stance in the lead up to the election. Unlike Johnson’s almost Trumpian slogan of “get Brexit done” (i.e. “Build the Wall”), Corbyn, promised to renegotiate Brexit and hold a second Brexit referendum.

There is a clear argument against Brexit, but remainers did not use this election to make the case for putting the brakes on Brexit. Corbyn and his Labour party instead tried to push the focus away from Brexit with statements like, “Labour stands not for the 52% or the 48% but the 99%.”

In response to this unclear message, voters summarily gave the Conservatives a crushing victory over Labour. This defeat was so bad that Corbyn has since resigned his leadership of the Labour Party.

The days of divided UK government are finally over, but at what cost? Brexit has left the UK polarized and divided on old regional and national lines. And it is unlikely for the UK to survive these trying times.

Brexit has ultimately been a net negative force for change. Both the UK and the EU have become more unstable, the UK has become more divided, and Britain has only weakened its economic and international status through its unnecessary divorce with Europe.

Giving the Conservatives a majority does not fix the underlying complexity in leaving the EU. The British electorate clearly wants to move on from Brexit, but by electing the Conservatives they have sealed the UK’s fate as a nation that will be defined by this decision to leave the EU.

Second, the Conservative Party wasn’t the only party which had a great night on Dec. 12. The Scottish National Party (SNP) is a regional party in the UK that only stands for seats in Scotland and advocates for an independent Scottish Nation. The SNP gained 13 seats in the election, and now represents 48 of the 59 seats from Scotland.

In reaction to this victory, SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon remarked, “So that independence referendum that was very much at the heart of the SNP’s campaign, there is a renewed, refreshed, strengthened mandate for that.”

Sturgeon has made it clear that a vote for the SNP in this election would be a vote for giving Scotland another choice on independence. The 2016 Brexit referendum has again changed the sentiment among Scottish people, with more separatist feelings being another symptom of the Brexit illness tearing apart the UK.

Scotland overwhelmingly voted to stay in the EU with almost every single constituency voting to remain and with Scotland as a whole voting 62% remain. Despite this, Scotland, like the rest of the UK, will be leaving the EU. This has caused many in the country to rightly feel that their voice is too small to be heard within the UK. Yet if Scotland does split with Britain, they may very well seek to rejoin the EU.

Sturgeon has petitioned Downing Street for another independence referendum, which Prime Minister Johnson flatly rejected on Jan. 14. It seems obvious that Johnson knows Scotland is ready to leave. He is ready and willing to take every step to keep the UK together, even if it means denying Scotland the right to self-determination.

All in all, the 2019 British general election has been a watershed moment for British politics. The Conservatives have secured a great victory by promising to deliver Brexit above all else. Brits had a second chance to rethink their decision but have instead decided to press forward. Meanwhile the cry for an independent Scotland has only grown as the UK’s future seems uncertain at best thanks to the legacy of Brexit.