Following the results of the first presidential primary contests, the dreaded scenario for many Americans is becoming the reality: a Trump vs. Biden rematch.

Even though both Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley outperformed their polling averages, they were trounced by the former president in the Iowa caucuses, leading both DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy to drop out and endorse Trump as the Republican nominee. Despite the growing amount of support behind Trump, Haley was still able to provide some competition for the former president, receiving 43.2% of the vote compared to the 54.3% received by Trump.

While an 11% margin of victory would be considered quite significant in most scenarios, for someone considered the presumptive nominee of their party who has over a 50-point lead in national polls, it is way too close for comfort. This margin can likely be attributed to independent voters, with New Hampshire’s primary allowing unaffiliated voters to participate. Two-thirds of independents who voted in the Republican primary voted for Haley by a giant margin of 65-34%.

Thus, while New Hampshire might be a signal of Trump now having a comfortable ride to the Republican nomination, it also provided warning signals for Trump’s competitiveness in the general election. While Trump’s loyal base is a huge portion of the electorate, it is not enough on its own to push him over the finish line. Independent voters, which have been the deciding factor in many of these close elections, have proven their opposition to the former president time and again.

Unfortunately for Dean Phillips, President Biden’s main challenger in New Hampshire’s Democratic primary, he was unable to receive similar margins to Haley. Despite Biden not even being on the ballot in New Hampshire, he was still able to win by over 40 points with a write-in campaign, a clear victory.

Even though there is much discontent with President Biden in the Democratic Party, especially on the left, it seems voters are still willing to reluctantly coalesce around the president in the face of his likely Republican challenger. Consequently, in New Hampshire, a state which twice voted for unaffiliated presidential nominee Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden won by a landslide.

Overall, the primary season thus far seems to signal that, while Biden might be able to overcome his lack of popularity within his party, Trump is unlikely to do the same with independents, which bodes bad news for him in the general election.