With President Biden and former President Trump both securing their party’s nominations, the general election season has officially begun. However, despite the traditional incumbency advantage, the numbers are not looking good for Biden.
According to a New York Times/Siena poll released March 2, 73% of registered voters believe President Biden is too old to be effective in a second term. Furthermore, according to polling aggregator RealClearPolitics, Biden is trailing Trump by 1.7% and hasn’t been in the lead since September 2023. This is significant because Trump lost the popular vote in both 2016 and 2020 and rarely had an advantage over Hillary Clinton throughout the 2016 campaign.
In addition, he consistently trailed Biden throughout the 2020 election. However, while Trump has underperformed in polls, Democrats have also underperformed in the 2022 and 2023 elections, providing some hope for Biden.
President Biden, clearly aware of public opinion, gave his annual State of the Union Address March 7. In his address, he was more eloquent and energized than he had seemed in months, clearly trying to get rid of any suggestions that he is too old to be president. While some believed his address was too partisan, with Biden making numerous attacks on the former president, the speech did seem to energize Democrats and make them feel a bit more confident that Biden could take on Trump.
While this speech does show a version of President Biden that could possibly win against Trump, it does not change many of the facts on the ground. Biden is not only running against Trump, but is also running on three years of his own record, which has frustrated many Americans.
For instance, the war in Gaza has alienated many Americans, which prompted anti-war advocates to organize an uncommitted vote in the two states with the largest percentage of the Arab American population: Michigan and Minnesota. The uncommitted vote obtained substantial support in both the Michigan and Minnesota primaries, a warning sign for Biden. Furthermore, while the economy is not in as bad of a position as many projected and is doing better compared to many other Western nations, Americans are still suffering from the remnants of past inflation.
Overall, the speech may have invigorated Democrats, but whether or not this energized version of President Biden can win back the support of the American people is yet to be seen.
