Former President Donald Trump was declared the 47th president-elect of the United States Nov. 6, defeating Vice President Kamala Harris in every battleground state — despite multiple forecasters predicting her win. The overwhelming message coming from the Democratic party afterward was, “How did this happen?” Perhaps one of the biggest factors to look at is identity politics, and how the Democratic party miscalculated its support from key demographics. 

According to Richard Thompson Ford, J.D., identity politics suggests “a political orientation built around a (pre-existing) social identity.” Tressie McMillan Cottom, Ph.D., a New York Times columnist, builds on this concept, arguing that politicians employ identity politics to “cater to and respond to the identity-driven needs of your base” and “turn out the people who will vote for you by appealing to who they think they are.” Identity politics involve people of all identities, not just minority groups and women, and a misunderstanding of this concept may have contributed to Harris’ loss. 

For example, data shows minority voters and women align more with the Democratic party. But, it would seem Harris’ campaign made a miscalculation: They assumed minority voters would see themselves in Harris and vote for her. They banked on sweeping the votes of women and people of color, without doing substantial work to obtain their support. 

But this was certainly not a sweep. Exit polls from the 2024 election show that 53% of women voted for Harris and just under 45% voted for Trump. But the most shocking numbers for analysts were the Hispanic/Latino vote (52% Harris, 46% Trump), which some argue propelled Trump to victory, and the Asian American vote (54% Harris, 39% Trump) — again, split nearly down the middle. Racialized minorities, however, are small in number compared to white voters, likely a decisive demographic in Trump’s win.   

While Harris’ campaign energized her base with famous speakers at rallies and a youth-driven social media presence, the Democrats fell short in several key areas. In assuming guaranteed minority votes and not truly earning these votes campaign-wise, they made a grievous mistake that may have cost Harris the election.